Enough is enough: Carney calls for Australia to stand up to Trump

Zara Lawrence

Image sourced from Kalea Morgan via Unsplash

“The only way to deal with bullies is to stand up to them.” - The Hon. Malcolm Turnbull, 2024 

During his Prime Ministership, Malcolm Turnbull maintained his relationship with Donald Trump under this philosophy. This came to the fore in 2017, when Trump threatened to tear up an agreement made with the Obama Administration to allow a number of asylum seekers bound for Australia to be repatriated to the United States. Despite Trump’s protests that the deal would hurt him politically, Turnbull did not cave. Eventually, Trump conceded and honoured the agreement. This seemingly small encounter between Trump and Turnbull is critical to understanding how to approach a productive relationship with the United States in 2026. Australia has a rare diplomatic opportunity to lead the international system in promoting the rules-based order, respect for sovereignty, human rights, and engaging in cooperation with middle powers such as Canada, given the United States’ apparent withdrawal. This requires Australia to stand up to Trump alongside middle powers to protect our shared values.

Carney’s gameplan: How to manage international turmoil

Many people claim that Trump 2.0 is unpredictable, volatile, and destructive. After threating Greenland (and in turn the NATO alliance), invading Venezuela, inciting trade wars, exiting from many international commitments, and now inciting war in the Middle East, this is a reasonable assessment. Trump appears to be exploiting the U.S.’ considerable power and influence to more overtly serve the country’s interests. This is a consistent pattern of behaviour that must be considered by decision makers when considering foreign policy.

At the World Economic Forum, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recognised this, and called upon the rest of the world to use their power - big or small - to stand up to Trump. He called on middle powers like Canada and Australia to stop conforming to the rupturing international order and instead fight to preserve it.

Carney argues that: “The multilateral institutions on which the middle powers have relied – the WTO, the UN, the COP – the architecture, the very architecture of collective problem solving are under direct challenge.”

“[…] the middle powers must act together, because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”

Carney’s words are a warning to Australia to change our strategic direction, stop conforming to the current so called “rules-based” international order, stop being complicit in Trump’s actions to defy sovereignty, and join Canada in exercising our modest power to construct a new international system that can stand up to, and withstand, the U.S.

Australia’s unreliable deterrence strategy and another option

Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and current Treasurer Jim Chalmers have praised Carney’s remarks. Chalmers stated that: “Australia’s interests are best served by cooperation and by managing our differences within international law and international institutions.” This acknowledgement is important, but clear actions need to follow.

Australia is in a unique position. We are reliant on the U.S. for defence as a great power deterring other nations. However, this deterrence is reliant on how credible the threat is. Trump’s disregard for AUKUS, unpredictable behaviour in Venezuela and Iran, and threats against Greenland shows he is neither credible nor reliable. Thus, Trump’s behaviour has eroded the legitimacy of his promise to protect Australia and jeopardized deterrence as an effective security strategy. Australians’ confidence in Trump is shifting. To complicate matters further, China is Australia’s largest trading partner. The economic reliance on China puts our nation in the middle of two great powers. It appears that Australia will be a flashpoint either as a strategic mediator between the two or a source of competition leading to potential conflict. Investment in alliances with middle powers to diversify defence and economic relations is critical for Australia to withstand coercion inflicted by great powers.

An International Strategic Alliance between middle-power that pursues military and economic coordination is essential. This would include a military alliance that aims to support middle powers to be self-sufficient in defence capability and diversify defence reliance away from great powers and towards multilateral security. To address economic coercion would require diversifying global value chains to avoid resource monopoly and reliance. Another critical step is the decentralisation of the global financial system so it can withstand aftershocks caused by Trump’s tariffs. An alliance would consolidate power, seize an opportunity for international leadership and enable middle-powers to combat coercion outside exceptionalist international institutions susceptible to great power influence.

Australia needs to heed Carney’s warning and seriously assess our position as a middle power. Canada’s Prime Minister rallies: “Intermediate powers… are not powerless.” We do have power and we need to use it to our advantage to build an international world order that promotes our values of cooperation, human rights, and respect for territorial sovereignty; a new international order that serves its members and eradicates exceptionalist behaviour.

Australia needs to align with middle powers like Canada, stand up to Trump, and commit to securing our position as a strategic mediator in the international community. If we don’t, the United States will continue to manipulate us, use our reliance on their protection as a coercive tool, and, as a consequence, we will remain at the whim of the bully.

Just as Malcolm Turnbull explains: “The reality is, if you suck up to bullies, whether it is … global affairs, or in the playground, you just get more bullying.”

Enough is enough.