Ojasvi Rana | USA Fellow
Image sourced from Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia Commons.
July was a defining month for former President and current nominee Donald Trump, strengthening his presidential campaign and seemingly impenetrable ‘bigman’ character. In just over two weeks in July, Trump: won a favourable 6-3 ruling in the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS); survived an attempted political assassination at a rally in Pennsylvania; and was confirmed as the Republican Presidential nominee at the Republican National Convention – and confirmed Senator JD Vance as his running mate. Trump also survived an attempted assassination on 15 September.
Despite these developments, the race is tougher than ever with the democratic Harris campaign’s rollout and debate success. Trump promises the rise of a great America returning to its proud roots, while his policies pave the way for a fractured governing institution and undermine democracy, norms, and the rule of law. Kamala Harris is betting on these contradictions in Trump’s argument to give her an edge come election day in November. However, July showed just how volatile this presidential campaign is, and just how quickly it can – and still could – change in its few remaining days.
The Supreme Court Ruling
This historic ruling affects Trump as well as the incumbent President Biden and future presidents. President Biden asserted that this verdict sets a dangerous precedent that will undermine the United States’ (US) separation of powers, “because the power of the office will no longer be constrained by the law, even including the Supreme Court of the United States. The only limits will be self-imposed by the president alone.”
Notably, the SCOTUS ruling dismisses crucial evidence in the federal election interference case about Trump’s alleged pressure tactics to direct VP Mike Pence and the Department of Justice to reject certification of President Biden’s win on 6 January 2021. A trial before the election in November is an unlikely possibility, as the case is batted back to District Judge Tanya Chutkan of the lower court in Washington, DC.
Judge Chutkan now has the complicated task of determining which of Trump’s actions were in an ‘official’ or ‘personal’ capacity. The SCOTUS verdict also provides an edge case presumptive immunity, extending the definition of official capacity to include acts within the outer perimeter of presidential responsibility. In practise, this means that a president enjoys presumptive immunity from prosecution if even a small part of their action can be attributed to their official status.
The fact that a man found guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a recent hush money trial, and the first former president to be convicted of a felony, can run for re-election points to the potential weakening of the rule of law. Regardless of Trump’s legitimacy as a presidential candidate, his sloganeering hits home with his Republican base. Yet its focus on inflammatory dialogue which leans into harmful racial stereotypes (for example, “they are eating the dogs…and cats”) is indicative of the erosion of political norms that are expected in an advanced democracy. In an era of expanding presidential authority, the character of the leader at the helm must be scrutinized, as they set the tone for where the nation will fall on the spectrum between societal cohesion and further polarization. On 5 November, Americans must cast a vote based not only on policy but also on the integrity, values, and leadership qualities that will shape the future of the nation's democracy and its ability to bridge divides.
A Second Trump Presidency
Polling indicates that a second Trump presidency is a likely possibility despite Kamala Harris reinvigorating voters as the confirmed Democratic presidential nominee alongside her VP pick senator Tim Walz. While the exact consequences of a second Trump term remain unclear, the 900-page “Project 2025” provides a firm indication. It was produced by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative-leaning think tank which is the “beating heart of the GOP policy apparatus” according to Pete Buttigieg, US Secretary of Transportation. Some of the more radical assertions in the Project 2025 document involve abolishing the Department of Education, cutting funding for Medicare, and defunding climate research.
Trump has repeatedly refused to associate himself with the document. However, his running mate JD Vance recently wrote the foreword to a forthcoming book written by Kevin Roberts, the president of the Heritage Foundation. Furthermore, Trump openly supports some of Project 2025’s ambitions to restrict access to abortion, and its recommendation to reshape the US Federal government and consolidate executive power. Knowing the vision Trump has for the US coupled with the immunity granted by the SCOTUS, he is positioned to use the powers of the presidency to further his own agenda without guardrails or concern as to what Americans want from their government.
As the US moves closer to the next presidential election, developments involving the SCOTUS and Project 2025 should be focal points of public debate. The potential re-election of Trump, armed with newfound legal protections and a blueprint for reshaping the federal government, could usher in a period of significant transformation. For supporters, this may represent a long-overdue return to a more assertive executive branch. For critics, it poses a threat to the foundational principles of American democracy, including the checks and balances designed to protect the rights and freedoms of its citizenry. Although election day is only a week away, the past few months have demonstrated that a lot can still change in a short period of time. Every vote will matter more than ever.
Ojasvi Rana is the USA Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. pursuing double degrees in Biomedical Engineering Honours and Arts in Economics at the University of Sydney. In 2023, she completed an academic exchange semester at the University of Pennsylvania. Her recent internship at the United States Studies Centre as an Emerging Technology and Economic Security Intern deepened her strategic geopolitical thinking, a highlight included presenting her AI policy brief to USSC. Ojasvi will further her studies at Cornell University, spending the 2024-2025 academic year in Ithaca, New York.
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