Edward Aitken | Africa Fellow
Kenyan President William Ruto signs the guest book at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., May 24, 2024. Image sourced from U.S. Secretary of Defence via Flickr.
While the President of Kenya, William Ruto, seeks to build his country’s brand abroad, many young Kenyans have expressed their dissatisfaction at home over foreign policy agendas perceived to be driven by the West. The country’s proposed Finance Bill, backed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has sparked youth-led protests across Kenya, which have continued for months. The disconnect between the ambitions of Ruto and those of Kenya’s young population reflect the broader challenges to the country’s sovereignty.
The state of play in Kenya
The Finance Bill, which was introduced by Kenyan parliament last month and aimed at reducing Kenya's budget deficit, called for the introduction of taxes on everyday goods such as bread, vegetable oil and sugar. This comes as part of an effort to reduce Kenya’s large public debt, which sits at 68 per cent of GDP – notably higher than World Bank and IMF recommended debt at 55 per cent of GDP.
The public’s response to the Finance Bill was immediate. Thousands of Kenyans poured onto the streets of Nairobi, Mombasa and other major cities in protest against the taxes, citing reckless government spending, corruption and a lack of economic opportunity for young Kenyans as what should be prioritised in their place. So far, at least 39 people have died in the protests.
Another major source of frustration for protestors is the IMF’s central role in promulgating the proposed taxes, which is seen as yet another misaligned Western intervention for an African problem. Ruto’s perceived appeasement of Western agendas does not sit well with an increasingly educated and technologically connected young population facing economic hardship and a lack of opportunities, placing the future of his presidency in doubt.
Kenya under Ruto
President Ruto has built much of his presidency on a push to claim Kenya's rightful place on the international stage. In May 2024, Ruto became the first African Head of State to be welcomed to the White House since 2008. On the agenda was increased economic and security cooperation with the United States, which was headlined by the long-stalled Kenyan police deployment to Haiti. Ruto promised a peacekeeping mission of 1,000 troops to the troubled Caribbean state in October 2023, which has received firm support from the US.
Kenya's commitment to the Western global agenda comes at a time of diminishing Western influence in Africa. Only a month before Ruto’s White House visit, both Chad and Niger ordered all US troops to leave amid growing dissatisfaction with its Western military presence. France has fielded similar requests alongside renewed calls for colonial reparations. With the shift away from the West, many African countries are now looking eastward to Russia and China for economic and security cooperation. The US is positioning itself to counter in any way it can.
From an international perspective, Ruto is getting what he needs. US President Joe Biden has pledged to designate Kenya as a major non-NATO ally and in July, Ruto was invited to the G7 Summit in Italy where he had the platform to speak on his vision of global finance reform. Despite bringing a Global South perspective to NATO and the G7 Summit, retaining access to these platforms requires states to, in broad terms, agree with Western policy agendas and to respect Western institutions such as the IMF.
Trouble brewing at home
Kenya, like much of Africa, has a young population, with at least 80 per cent of the country under 35. These young Kenyans are also more educated than previous generations and have high levels of digitisation. Many, though, are still starved of economic opportunity, with youth unemployment at around 13 per cent.
Mobilising through social media, protestors are calling for change. They seek to do away with the IMF and World Bank’s supported economic reforms that hurt domestic industry and fail to account for local considerations. Calls for an African-oriented foreign policy that does not blindly follow Western agendas resound loudly across Kenya and much of modern Africa.
Implications for Kenya
The disconnect between domestic sentiment and foreign policy is playing out across the continent. In the Sahelian States of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, recent military coups have ousted leaders on anti-imperialism platforms, which has garnered the support of many young voices. These states are turning away from France, the United States and other Western powers in favour of an independent foreign policy.
While Kenya is not on path for a coup d'etat or foreign policy realignment, the noise from the recent protests is too loud for Ruto to ignore. The Finance Bill has already been significantly scaled back and Ruto has dismissed most of his Cabinet. The domestic fallout is likely to continue but there seems no significant shift to Kenyan foreign policy.
Edward Aitken is the Africa Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. He holds a Bachelor of Laws and a Bachelor of Arts (majoring in Politics and Journalism) from the University of Notre Dame Fremantle. Admitted as a lawyer in 2024, he is currently working at an international commercial law firm in Melbourne.
Edward has a passion for learning about cultures and stories emanating from Africa. His engagement with the continent stemmed from travelling in Eastern and Southern Africa for six months in 2022 and 2023. He hopes to a establish a career in the continent with a keen interest on renewable energy and sustainable development.
Comentários