The Diplomatic Relationship Deterioration between South Africa and the United States

Johan van der Merwe | Africa Fellow

Image sourced from U.S. Navy photo by Gillian M. Brigham via Wikimedia Commons.

The second presidency of Donald Trump has led to unprecedented and prolonged tension between South Africa and the United States (US). On the one hand, the US is increasingly viewing international affairs as a contest for economic dominance, power and ideological influence. On the other hand, South Africa is determined to pursue its own independent path in global diplomacy whilst addressing historical injustices domestically. As relations continue to fray, both governments are acting in ways that undermine their own long-term interests. The lack of strategic rationality risks long-term political, economic, and geopolitical harm if left uncorrected.

Growing Pressure from the United States

President Trump’s return to office has led to a series of bold and, in some cases, controversial moves. The most incendiary was the issuance of an executive order in February 2025 promoting the resettlement of Afrikaner South Africans in response to “egregious actions”. President Trump has repeatedly maintained that there is a “genocide” against Afrikaners. Trump’s approach stems from his objection to South Africa’s Expropriation Act 13 of 2024, a land-reform law that aims to correct Apartheid land ownership.

In March, diplomatic tensions further escalated when the South African ambassador to the US was declared persona non grata, effectively being expelled, after commenting that the MAGA movement was mobilising a “supremacist instinct”. In April, the US suspended military assistance and cooperation with the South African National Defence Force after three decades of bilateral defence collaboration. In August, President Trump announced South African products exported to the US will be subject to a 30 per cent tariff. This effectively spells out the end of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Since 2000, South Africa’s trade relationship with the US was underpinned by AGOA, which granted duty-free access for selected sub-Saharan African exports into the US market.

In November, South Africa hosted the G20 summit. This marked the first G20 summit held on African soil and presented a unique opportunity for the US and South Africa to repair relations. Unfortunately, the G20 summit ended with the glaring absence of the US, which boycotted the event. Further straining diplomatic relations, the US, as host of the G20 in 2026, decided not to include South Africa in the upcoming Summit, instead inviting Poland.

Why the US Turned Against South Africa

South Africa has made several strategic errors in recent years, making it increasingly difficult for the South Africa government to maintain that it is pursuing a policy of non-alignment. The country abstained from voting on UN resolutions regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which garnered scrutiny from the US. By contrast, South Africa initiated genocide proceedings against Israel before the International Court of Justice in response to Israel’s military actions. Again, in January 2026, when the US undertook unilateral military action in Venezuela, South Africa was swift to criticise and urged a UN Security Council Session. Such inconsistency undermines claims of non-alignment, prompting the US to view South Africa as a national security concern and to cite South Africa’s “aggressive positions” towards the United States.

Moreover, South Africa has advanced relations with many US adversaries and enjoys membership of the BRICS alliance. Under this alliance, in the second week of January 2026, China, Russia and Iran began joint naval exercises in South Africa’s waters. Hosting these sanctioned states, which are involved in active conflicts, is clearly not a neutral act and will, without a doubt, further enrage the Trump administration.

Mutual Strategic Miscalculation

Both nations have compelling reasons to rebuild trust. South Africa faces tremendous economic hardship, with an unemployment rate of 31.9 per cent and the worst inequality in the world. This underscores the importance of ensuring trade with the US, ranked second largest destination for South Africa’s exports after China. The imposition of tariffs and expiration of AGOA pose serious risks as they eliminate the competitive advantage enjoyed by South African exporters. The repercussions on the country, from employment to production chains and broader social stability, will be profound.

For the US, disengaging from South Africa risks further diminishing the country’s influence in Africa at a time when it aims to offset Chinese and Russian influence across the continent. From 2000 to 2019, China committed an estimated USD$153 billion to African public sector projects. In this environment, the ability of the US to shape outcomes increasingly depends on retaining credible and regionally influential partners such as South Africa. Marginalising South Africa therefore does not merely punish a difficult partner but narrows the US strategic footprint across the continent.

Additionally, the US tariff imposition in response to dissatisfaction with South Africa’s domestic politics is unlikely to compel meaningful change and may, paradoxically, burden the very community it purports to protect: the Afrikaner farming community, which is heavily reliant on agricultural exports to the US.

A Strategic Crossroads for South Africa

The US has made a symbolic pivot and is no longer seeking a multilateral rules-based international order; it is seeking power and a coalition of the like-minded. In these circumstances, South Africa faces a stark choice. It may seek to amend its relationship with the US, which would require adjustments to the nation’s commitment to land reform, and a renewed commitment to non-aligned foreign policy. Alternatively, it may accept a continued deterioration and instead seek to strengthen relations beyond the US. For now, South Africa appears inclined toward the latter, slowing international trade and external economic liberalisation.

Johan van der Merwe is in his final year at the University of Sydney, completing a Bachelor of Laws and Bachelor of Arts with a major in Economics. Born in Australia to South African parents, Johan has always had an interest in Africa’s intricate socio-political landscapes, liberation movements, and economic challenges. This fascination deepened during his years at Hilton College, a boarding school in South Africa. His connection to the continent endures today as a director of De Aap Private Nature Reserve. Johan has studied in Scotland and the Netherlands and undertook research at the European Commission in Brussels, which shaped his passion for international policy. His intellectual interests lie at the intersection of law, religion and development economics, underpinned by a passion for political philosophy and individual liberty.

Our 2026 Africa Fellow is sponsored by the Centre for Africa-Australia Relations. For more information, visit their website here.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Young Australians in International Affairs. AI tools were used by this author for grammar checks and idea refinement, but all content is original, and no plagiarism has been used in the preparation of this article.