Foreign Policy Under Competitive Authoritarianism Understanding the Shifting MAGA Foreign Policy Doctrine

Isabelle Powell | United States Fellow

Image sourced from Rob Walsh via Unsplash

In 2016, Donald Trump captured the hearts of millions of working class Americans by campaigning on the pertinent issues of income inequality and job scarcity, reaching communities in the industrial Rust Belt and all across America. His message rang clear: Washington must prioritise its own economic and national interests. Yet, since his return to office, this "America First" rhetoric has fractured against a highly interventionist reality, marked by military operations in 9 different countries and ambitions of territorial expansion, all while establishing the Board of Peace and aspiring to the Nobel Prize. To make sense of this paradox, observers must look past traditional political frameworks to analyse the US through the lens of competitive authoritarianism and endemic regime instability. In this hybrid political landscape, power and transactional financial gains guide foreign policy rather than ideology, giving rise to a malleable politics beholden to the economic interests of the elite, with little regard for international norms, diplomacy, or the American people.

Competitive Authoritarianism 

Competitive authoritarianism describes a hybrid regime whereby democratic institutions and elections are maintained on the surface, yet the playing field is systematically tilted to prevent a fair democracy and critics are punished. Endemic regime instability is a state of perpetual political turbulence characterised by political instability, protest and institutional breakdown. Many scholars argue that the Trump administration has transitioned to a form of competitive authoritarianism and emerging endemic regime instability. Beneath a facade of democracy operates a high level of cronyism, kleptocracy, and the weaponization of state institutions and the media.

“America First” and Understanding the MAGA Doctrine

Foreign policy in competitive authoritarian regimes operates on a zero-sum basis, with little regard for global norms. Rather than developing diplomatic relationships over time, competitive authoritarian regimes operate on astrictly transactional basis and with conditional offers of loyalty. The “America First" approach to foreign policy speaks to this through evoking 19th century isolationism, characterised by a skepticism of international institutions, high tariffs and the protection of national interests above all else. Trump campaigned on this ideology, reaching a new generation of neo-conservatives who were skeptical of multilateralism and foreign aid. A pertinent voice in this movement was the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA (TPSA), who criticised previous administrations for ‘forever wars’ and regime change defining their foreign policy agenda.

President Trump told Michael Scherer in 2025 that “America First” means whatever he says it does. Indeed, in an unstable democratic environment, the MAGA foreign policy doctrine is a malleable ideology that shifts to its own self-interests and increasingly violates democratic norms. Increasingly, this means that in spite of its “America First” agenda, it will employ aggressive unilateral measures and territorial expansion. This is demonstrated even in the renaming of the Department of Defence to the Department of War, reflecting a prioritising of  national interests and willingness to wage war under any cost  to ‘secure what is ours’. In addition, the administration's military operations in Venezuela, Iran and Lebanon and touted ambitions to acquire Greenland, Canada and Cuba reveal a stark departure from the original promise of domestic isolation, replaced by a highly unpredictable interventionist foreign policy.

MAGA foreign policy uses a business-minded mentality to approach deal-making, regardless of impact on human lives. This impedes strategic alliances and diplomatic efforts, where relationship building is conditional and war and economic sanctions are used as a way to punish allies or adversaries. Stephen Miller, a senior member of Trump’s cabinet described international law as “niceties in a world governed by strength, force and power”. Earlier this year, the Trump Administration considered withholding H.I.V. Aid unless Zambia expanded its mineral access, all while 1.3 million Zambians rely on daily H.I.V. treatment that is provided through the U.S. These policy choices are not conducive with a healthy democracy and reflect a shift toward pure transactional politics and a fundamental realignment of the rules-based international order.

Foreign Policy as a Business Endeavour

Since joining office, the Trump family has increased their family fortune by $4 billion. In Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy, the document outlines a revised approach to China, focused on a ‘mutually advantageous economic relationship with Beijing’. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr recently merged their golf course holding company with a drone company called Powerus amid the Iran war, that seeks to build more than 10,000 drones a month and provide drone interceptors to Gulf countries targeted by Iran in current conflict. Presently, negotiations are underway for $1.1 billion in federal contracts with the Pentagon for drone manufacturers. As a result, the Trump family’s wealth would skyrocket, with the family benefiting directly from the loss of lives in the Middle East.

Global Implications

Just like at the end of the second world war, we stand at a critical crossroads where international relations must be redefined. Global politics can no longer be driven by economics or business ventures but instead must be guided by established global norms, international law and human rights. The world must adapt and restructure under this new volatile form of diplomacy while navigating America’s period of dysfunctional democracy and competitive authoritarianism. 

In 2016, millions of working class Americans embraced a novel, emerging foreign policy doctrine characterised by global isolation and the promise of a stronger economy. The President is governing as he promised millions he would: like a businessman, yet the results are not as many had hoped. Without the patience for diplomacy, we risk sliding into an even more economically and ideologically volatile world. This order requires thoughtful diplomacy and courageous global actors to rise to the international arena, offering new visionary leadership and global stability.

Isabelle Powell is a graduate of the University of Sydney, where she earned a degree in Politics and International Relations. Her global perspective has been shaped by living, studying and working across Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

She has worked in immigration centres in Sydney and Portland, USA, supporting refugees and survivors of human trafficking and gender-based violence. Isabelle is the director of Stories of America, a documentary currently in post-production that draws on field research interviews across Oregon to explore migration, national identity and political polarisation in the United States.

In January, she will join the Office of Senator Bernie Sanders in Washington D.C., as a Press and Digital Communications Intern. With a particular interest in democracy and political economy, Isabelle looks forward to contributing thoughtful, globally informed analysis of American domestic and foreign policy during the Fellowship.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Young Australians in International Affairs. AI tools were used by this author for research, but all content is original, and no plagiarism has been used in the preparation of this article.