Making the Atmosphere Grim Again: Why the Global South Holds the Key to Climate Action as Trump Withdraws

Oliver Hovenden | Climate and Environment Fellow

Image sourced from The White House via Wikimedia Commons.

Barely 100 days into his second term, Donald Trump is already proving more dangerous to the climate than ever. In a sweeping return to denial and deregulation, Trump has launched an all-out war on climate action, threatening the fragile global progress made since the Paris Agreement and emboldening other major emitters to abandon their own commitments. 

As the United States (US) retreats from international climate leadership, the world finds itself at a critical crossroads. This moment presents an opportunity to reshape global climate governance. The Global South, though least responsible for the climate crisis, is the most vulnerable to its impacts, yet their perspectives have long been sidelined. With Washington in reverse, the path is open to elevate South-led solutions and build a more just and effective climate order.

Science Under Siege

Trump’s hostility to climate action is hardly new, with a major slogan of his 2016 campaign being “Trump Digs Coal”. During his first term, he withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, a move he repeated immediately after his second inauguration this year. Then in March, the US formally exited the Loss and Damage Fund, a key United Nations mechanism designed to support vulnerable nations dealing with the worst impacts of climate change, sending a clear message: the world’s most vulnerable are on their own.

Domestically, the White House has reversed pollution standards, weakened the Environmental Protection Agency, and scrapped regulations on methane and vehicle emissions. Climate scientists are being dismissed en masse as the National Climate Assessment, a cornerstone of evidence-based policymaking, is defunded. Meanwhile, disaster-preparedness programs have been slashed, leaving communities more exposed to worsening floods, fires, and storms.

Greenhouse Gaslighting 

Trump’s second term has ushered in a relentless campaign of disinformation. Having declared climate change a hoax, and climate action a threat to national sovereignty orchestrated by ‘globalist elites’, within weeks of regaining office, his administration scrubbed any references to climate change from government websites and reports.

Trump’s rhetoric and actions normalise climate denial, erode trust in science and fuel conspiracy theories while turning climate policy into a cultural battleground. It also emboldens other governments to follow suit. Argentine President Javier Milei, has recently echoed Trump’s stance, signalling his intentions to also exit Paris and dismissing environmentalism as part of the ‘woke agenda’. Indonesia, too, has hinted it may follow suit, with its special envoy for climate change and energy recently asking, ‘If the United States does not want to comply with the international agreement, why should a country like Indonesia?’.

The World Without Washington

As Trump dismantles what remains of American climate leadership, momentum is building elsewhere. Despite bearing the brunt of climate impacts, the Global South is demonstrating what climate leadership can look like when rooted in justice, innovation, and community resilience. Pacific Island states are pursuing legal recognition of climate loss and damage through international courts, while African countries invest in the clean energy transition through ambitious renewable energy and ecosystem restoration projects. In Latin America, Indigenous movements are shaping environmental governance, and regional blocs are advancing new frameworks for cross-border climate resilience.

South-South cooperation must be scaled up. Unlike top-down models of the Global North, these collaborations prioritise solutions tailored to local contexts and cultural practices that recognise the unique challenges faced by developing countries. By sharing knowledge and pooling resources, Global South countries can enhance their collective capacity to confront climate change. Regional organisations like the African Union and Pacific Islands Forum play pivotal roles in enabling this cooperation.

The European Union (EU) offers a model for systemic transition through its European Green Deal. As the Trump Administration slashes foreign aid, the EU must go further and amplify South-led initiatives by expanding climate finance and strengthening regional partnerships. Support should also focus on sharing technical expertise, fostering capacity-building, and sustained advocacy for Global South leadership at multilateral forums like COP.

China’s role is more complex. As the world’s largest emitter and leader in clean energy technologies, China holds immense influence. President Xi Jinping has pledged to ‘overcome the headwinds and steadily move forward global climate governance.’ Indeed, China has played an key role in bridging gaps between developed and developing countries in recent international talks, especially during negotiations at COP29 for a new global climate finance goal. Yet to lead credibly, China must accelerate its own transition, with over 60 per cent of its electricity still coming from coal and ensure its growing influence in the Global South is used to empower, rather than exploit.

A future shaped by Global South leadership, supported by meaningful North-South partnerships, offers a pathway to climate action that is collaborative, locally grounded, and centred on justice.

Hope Beyond the Hill

While the Trump administration works to dismantle climate action, not all momentum in the US has been lost. States like California, New York, and Washington continue to defend emissions standards and take legal action against federal rollbacks.  Civil society, Indigenous leaders, and youth activists are keeping pressure alive and with Trump term-limited, the door remains open for renewed federal engagement.  

Yet as the US retreats, global climate leadership is shifting. A multipolar order is emerging, driven by the Global South. To succeed, this transition needs strong backing from the Global North through financing, diplomacy, and support for South-South cooperation. Trump may be trying to make the atmosphere grim again, but the world still holds the power to shape what comes next.

Oliver Hovenden is the Climate and Environment Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. He holds a Bachelor of Arts and Laws (Honours) from the University of Tasmania, majoring in Politics and International Relations. As Climate and Environment Fellow, Oliver is excited to use an environmental justice lens to explore the latest international developments in climate law and policy, the impact of climate activism, and Australia’s important role in the Antarctic and Indo-Pacific regions.