Myanmar: What happens when crises go ignored

Annabel Simpson | Indo-Pacific Fellow

Image sourced from Saw Wunna via Unsplash

In February 2021, a coup in Myanmar went viral. A convoy of armoured vehicles headed for the parliament complex was captured in the background of a fitness video, leading to the coup being streamed around the world. Myanmar has been in the midst of a civil war ever since, but this is not the only humanitarian crisis the country is facing. The Rohingya ethnic minority have been persecuted for decades and organised crime is booming. These interconnected crises are no coincidence but rather an example of what can happen if crises go ignored.

Before the Coup: the Rohingya Crisis

The Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic group from Rakhine State, have been persecuted for nearly half a century – if not more.  The government revoked their citizenship in 1977 and waves of violence against them have occurred ever since, including those in 2017 which led to the Rohingya fleeing to Bangladesh en masse. Many have remained there in makeshift camps ever since. While the exodus initially made international headlines, attention has since died down – and so too has the quantity of aid in the camps. As a result of aid cuts, humanitarian relief in Cox’s Bazar (the world’s largest refugee camp) has been “hyperprioritised” to support only the most urgent needs. But there is not even enough of this support to go around. Between September and December 2026, it is expected that one in three refugees will face “crisis” level hunger – many of them children.

For many of these children – who form 52 per cent of the population – life in refugee camps is all they have known as families have been there for nearly a decade, if not longer. In this context, recent protests have erupted among those wishing to return home. Currently, however, there is no safe way for this to happen, particularly as international responses continue to fade or be drawn out.

Seven years ago, The Gambia accused Myanmar of genocide in the International Court of Justice, forcing representatives to defend the military’s actions in the Hague. One of them was Aung San Suu Kyi, then State Councillor and the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize laureate for her “struggle for democracy and human rights”. While the results of this case are still in deliberation, one wonders what impact this will have, if any.

Post-Coup Era: the Acceleration of Human Rights Abuses

Since the 2021 coup, human rights abuses in Myanmar have grown exponentially. The loss of international interest in the crimes committed against Myanmar’s Rohingyas has signalled to the military that such violence is acceptable. While their actions were first met with international outcry, the government is yet to face accountability for its human rights abuses, which continue to this day.

As a result, these abuses are no longer focused primarily on ethnic minorities; they impact the entire country. In just the past few years, reports of alleged war crimes continue to grow. From forced conscription and the burning of villages to reports of child soldiers as young as 12, the list seems to be unending. Meanwhile, women continue to be disproportionately targeted both directly and indirectly. The military has, for example, accused armed groups of substituting menstrual pads for medical supplies and effectively banned them, thus weaponizing menstruation.

Crime Left Unchecked

Through the cracks in government created by the civil war, organised crime has seized the opportunity to further develop their illicit economy in the region. Myanmar has long been associated with the international drug trade through the Golden Triangle and production has not slowed because of the war. Rather, it has grown to make Myanmar the world’s largest producer of opium and synthetic drugs.

In recent years, scam compounds–building complexes from which online scams are run–have exploded in the region, with the majority located in Cambodia and Myanmar. These compounds are particular in that they create two types of victim: those who are scammed and those who are trafficked to run the scams. Among those forced to work in the compounds are both foreigners and locals, who find themselves exposed to increased risk of trafficking while trying to flee the violence.

While these compounds have drawn international attention, they have also become a crucial source of income for the Junta. Despite this, international pressure could have an impact on the government’s willingness to properly tackle this issue, as shown by recent cases such as the arrest of “cyber scam kingpin” Chen Zhi in Cambodia. International pressure pushed the Cambodian government to respond despite close ties with Zhi, something which could be replicated in Myanmar.

A Venn Diagram of Crises

None of these sources of insecurity are new to Myanmar. The Rohingya have been persecuted for decades. Historian and former international civil servant Thant Myint-U states that “the modern state of Burma was born as a military occupation”. In recent decades, however, violent repression has gone unchecked and expanded into a civil war which is now funded by human trafficking-fuelled crime. Refugees, meanwhile, become increasingly vulnerable to human trafficking as they flee the civil war and ethnic cleansing. This interconnected web has made Myanmar an example of what happens when crises are ignored. The mere act of awareness and pressure from the international community may not be enough to stop these crises from building upon themselves – but it is an important first step that could force those involved to be held accountable.

Annabel Simpson is a PhD student in International Relations at the University of Nottingham in the United Kingdom. Her main research interests include human security and the impacts of Taiwan’s debated statehood.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Young Australians in International Affairs. No AI tools or plagiarism have been used in the preparation of this article.