Beyond the Indo-Pacific: Why Africa Must Be Australia’s Next Strategic Horizon

Jesse Amoah | Africa Fellow

Image sourced from James Wiseman via Unsplash.

As an Australian Ghanaian, I have grown up between two worldviews. One is shaped by institutional confidence, multilateralism and global systems. The other is grounded in self-determination, regional unity and pan-African ambition. This dual perspective reveals a deeper imbalance in Australian foreign policy, which remains fixated on the Indo-Pacific, even as Africa’s global influence continues to grow.

Africa is home to 1.5 billion people, nearly one fifth of humanity, and has the youngest population on Earth. Yet it remains absent from serious Australian strategic thinking. Its foreign policy is still shaped by a narrow regional lens, limiting its ability to engage with a rapidly changing world.

This is no longer tenable. As global power shifts toward emerging economies, neglecting Africa is not only outdated. It is a strategic liability. If Australia is to remain relevant in a multipolar world, Africa must become central to its foreign and trade policy agenda.

A Demographic & Economic Recalibration

Africa’s demographic trajectory is not just impressive, it is game-changing. By 2050, Africa’s population will reach 2.5 billion by 2050, 25 per cent of humanity, and the world’s largest workforce. With over 70 per cent of Sub-Saharan Africans aged under 30, it offers an unrivalled pool of human capital.

That demographic dividend, coupled with urbanisation and digital adoption, is repositioning Africa as a global growth engine. This figure is not simply a statistic; it reflects strategic inertia. While the Indo-Pacific continues to dominate Australia’s bandwidth, it is failing to cultivate relationships with the region that will soon account for one in four people on the planet. This matters because access, influence, and trust are path-dependent. The countries that engage Africa early will shape its supply chains, standards, and systems of cooperation. Australia, by contrast, risks arriving late to a party it had every reason to host.

The Platform for Scale

Africa’s economic integration architecture is being built now. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the world’s largest by membership, spans 54 countries and a combined GDP of AUD$5.3 trillion. It aims to increase intra-African trade by over 50 per cent by harmonising regulations and reducing barriers.

This is more than a commercial opportunity. It is a strategic inflection point. For partners who act early, AfCFTA opens access to a growing consumer class, cross-border investment pipelines and a unified regulatory landscape. Without decisive engagement, Australia risks missing the demographic and economic megatrend of the century.

A Strategic Blind Spot

Despite deep mining links, Australia’s engagement with Africa remains narrow and extractive. Our diplomatic footprint spans just 17 missions across 54 countries. Australia lacks regional trade agreements, co-investment frameworks and strategic visibility beyond the resource sector.

This reflects a deeper misreading of Australian interests. Africa plays a central role in the energy transition. It holds most of the world’s cobalt, nearly half of its manganese, and major reserves of lithium, graphite, and rare earths, minerals that also underpin Australia’s exports.

As demand rises, scrutiny over sourcing will intensify, creating an opportunity to partner with African governments on shared labour, environmental, and governance standards, thereby building secure and sustainable value chains.

The window to help shape climate-aligned, mutually beneficial industrial ecosystems is closing. That requires shifting from transactional trade to long-term partnership. If Australia hesitates, others will fill the gap, especially China and Russia, whose influence in African mining, infrastructure and diplomacy is growing. Australia’s absence risks strategic irrelevance.

But Is There a Better Way Forward?

Australia must pivot from extractive transactions to strategic partnerships. As its approach to China evolved during the minerals boom, so too must its Africa strategy. Failing to adapt means missing out on a AUD$25 trillion consumer and investment market by 2050.

First, Australia must expand its diplomatic footprint. Trade missions in Nairobi, Accra, and Casablanca would anchor its presence in East, West, and North Africa, each a gateway to major regional blocs. Where embassies are not feasible, Austrade offices and roving envoys can offer vital visibility. Presence enables influence.

Second, Australia must unlock the potential of its 500,000-strong African diaspora, rich in cultural fluency, cross-border ties, and entrepreneurial drive. A dedicated Australian African Business and Policy Council, support for diaspora-led ventures, and deeper alumni links for African graduates could transform soft power into long-term advantage.

Third, Australia must rethink how it finances engagement. Expanding Export Finance Australia's regional remit and adapting models, such as the Pacific Infrastructure Facility, would send a clear signal. Moreover, a dedicated Australia–Africa Investment Compact, co-financed with the African Development Bank, would embed lasting partnership.

Shifting the Narrative

Finally, Australia must shift its African narrative. As Kofi Annan reminded us, Africa is not a challenge to manage; it is “a dynamic continent full of opportunities.” According to the IMF, 6 of the world’s 10 fastest-growing economies in 2024 will be African. This structural shift simply cannot be ignored.

This truth must cut through the lingering paternalism in how Australian policy views Africa. Africa is not a site of chaos or dependency. It is a strategic actor reshaping the global order. Viewing Africa solely as a risk blinds us to a greater one: being absent. That means exclusion from trade flows, marginalisation in global forums, and missed opportunities in supply chain resilience.

Old assumptions cannot shape new realities. If Australia is to remain globally relevant, it must be present where the future is being made, not arrive once the rules are set. Africa must no longer be a footnote in foreign policy. It should stand as a strategic pillar of Australia’s global outlook.

Jesse Amoah is the Africa ellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. Jesse is completing a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and a Bachelor of Laws at the University of New South Wales. His passion for Africa–Australia engagement is grounded in his Ghanaian heritage and shaped by experience across public policy and private markets. As an Africa Fellow, Jesse is committed to strengthening Australia’s strategic and diplomatic ties with the continent. He is particularly interested in how trade policy, diaspora networks, and investment diplomacy can position Australia as a meaningful partner in the African century.

Our 2025 Africa Fellow is sponsored by the Centre for Africa-Australia Relations. For more information, visit their website here.